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Who’s a Hall of Famer?

hofHow cool it must be for a guy like Albert Pujols. He just began his 10th season in the major leagues — the minimum to be considered for the Hall of Fame. Even if his career ended tomorrow, he would be a lock to get in. Hopefully it won’t end anytime soon, so he now gets to play the next 10 years or so as a sure-fire HOFer. It must be a nice feeling. That got me thinking about players in the league today whom we might see in Cooperstown some day. I only took into account players who are signed for this season, so guys like Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield and John Smoltz were not considered. Here’s what I came up with. I welcome your comments:

Locks — players with 10+ seasons who are no-doubt-about-it first ballot Hall of Famers
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero
Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Trevor Hoffman
Derek Jeter
Chipper Jones
Albert Pujols
Mariano Rivera
Johan Santana
Ichiro Suzuki
Jim Thome (Yes, I forgot him. Thanks readers!)
Omar Vizquel

Steroids — most would be locks, but their implication with PEDs will hamper their candidacies
Jason Giambi
David Ortiz
Andy Pettitte
Manny Ramirez
Alex Rodriguez
Ivan Rodriguez
Miguel Tejada

On the Bubble — players with 10+ seasons who need a few more big seasons to garner serious consideration
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Mark Buehrle
Adam Dunn
Andruw Jones
Carlos Lee
Magglio Ordonez
Roy Oswalt
Aramis Ramirez
CC Sabathia
Alfonso Soriano
Billy Wagner
Michael Young
Carlos Zambrano

Falls Short — players with 10+ seasons nearing the end of their careers who will get consideration, but just won’t make it
Bobby Abreu
Garret Anderson
Johnny Damon
Jim Edmonds
Troy Glaus
Torii Hunter
Raul Ibanez
Derrick Lee
Jamie Moyer
Jorge Posada
Edgar Renteria
Scott Rolen

On Their Way — still early, but players with fewer than 10 seasons who appear to be Hall possibilities
Ryan Braun
Miguel Cabrera
Carl Crawford
Prince Fielder
Adrian Gonzalez
Matt Holliday
Ryan Howard
Cliff Lee
Jon Lester
Tim Lincecum
Evan Longoria
Joe Mauer
Justin Morneau
Jonathan Papelbon
Jake Peavy
Hanley Ramirez
Jose Reyes
Francisco Rodriguez
Jimmy Rollins
Mark Teixeira
Chase Utley
Justin Verlander
Jered Weaver
Brandon Webb
David Wright
Ryan Zimmerman

15 thoughts on “Who’s a Hall of Famer?

  • Pingback: Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Strasburg, Collusion, Cain « Sports Fans Bloggers

  • Even as a fellow Mets fan, I gotta say, Brian McCann probably deserves to be on the last list.

  • Uh, Jim Thome?

  • I think Jason Giambi,David Ortiz and Andy Pettitte are not Hall of Famers.Even before they were caught with steroids they weren’t hall of famers.

    Andruw Jones isn’t gonna get better.Also Jorge Posada is a boarderline Hall of famer.He is besides Piazza the best hitting catcher of the 2000’s.

  • Gregg Ferrara

    Exactally how is Santana a lock when he has 123 career wins and is showing serious signs of decline? Right now, Vlad is certainly not a lock either. 2200 hits and 400 HR’s in the steroid era just don’t stand out enough. He most likely gets in, but it isn’t a slam dunk. A-Rod gets in first ballot, he gets tested more than a player who hasn’t been caught and has had career years after ’03. If he keeps putting up MVP numbers and keeps testing clean, what do you deduct from the stuff he took in Texas? As far as being on the bubble, Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Lee, Magglio Ordonez, and Michael Young are some of the funniest names I have ever heard of. Not one of those players will ever get over 20% of the vote. The only guy who might get over 20% would be Jones based on his defense, but voters aren’t that smart.

  • Good list, but what about Thome, Delgado, and Nathan? Seems to me Thome should be a lock, Delgado is on the bubble, and Nathan is on his way.

  • This list is painful… Most of the “sure thing first ballot guys” will not be first ballot HOFers, Manny, ARod and Pudge are the only steriods guys you listed who will get consideration, and quite a few of the “on the bubble” guys are nowhere near the bubble. Soriano? Zambrano? Really? We’re talking about the hall of FAME – not the hall of good…

  • If you’re going to put pitchers like Lester and Weaver on the speculative list, how in the world can you leave off Felix Hernandez? He’s younger than both and has better numbers.

  • PaulyIcecubes

    Yeah, gotta put Brian McCann on that last list.

  • Come on, there is no way Giambi, Ortiz, Tejeda, or Pettitte make it regardless of steroids. And unless you consider needing 5 more years of being a great player the same as being “on the bubble” none of those guys are going to make it either.

    Thanks be to Roy Hobs you don’t have a HOF vote.

  • Love the idea behind this list but obviously a lot of these “locks” are anything but, and certainly not as “no-doubt-about-it first ballot Hall of Famers.”

    Griffey, obviously, is a lock to make the Hall of Fame, likely on the first ballot. I’d say Ichiro will be as well, given the unprecedented 9 straight years with 200 hits to start his MLB career. Jeter and Mariano are definite locks to make the Hall of Fame, and probably on their first try. But none of those other guys you mention are locks at all.

    Helton? Coors Field effect, and he only has 2,143 hits lifetime. Chipper Jones will be very lucky to even get consideration — his numbers aren’t really much better than Andre Dawson’s, and look at how long it took him to get in. A lot of those other guys certainly have good numbers, but aren’t shoo-ins — even Pujols. Albert Belle was pretty damn good for 10 years, too. He needs a few more solid years, for sure (as well as to avoid getting busted for ‘roids…).

    CC Sabathia’s probably the only guy on your bubble list with a shot at being considered, but it’s really too early to tell on him. I’d argue that Posada will garner significant consideration, just because of his Yankee affiliation (he’d get zero consideration if he was a lifelong Tiger or Royal). And I wouldn’t count out Damon, either, if he can somehow get 3,000 hits (he’ll be 400 away after this season).

    But a few of your locks might get in — just not on the first ballot. Thome, for instance, has the numbers but not the “name.” He’ll get shut out for a few years and then in a down year where there aren’t any other decent alternatives, he’ll sneak in with 76% of the vote. Hoffman and Vizquel will probably get in that way, too.

    If Bonds doesn’t get in, neither will ARod. I guess we’ll see in a few years.

  • Thanks for all the comments. Let me add a few things:

    I did forget Thome. Thanks for pointing that out.

    Many of the “On the Bubble” players won’t make it. I’m just saying a few more big years from some of them might put them over the top.

    As far as individual players:

    Michael Young is one of the most underrated players in the game. He had five straight 200+ hit seasons, and is a perennial all star.

    I thought twice about Magglio Ordonez, but his lifetime batting average is .312. That’s pretty high.

    I can see Brian McCann being on the “On Their Way” list. I’d like to see bigger seasons from him, though.

    Joe Nathan was on my original list. But relievers are a tough call, and he’s going to miss this season, so I left him out.

    I thought about Felix Hernandez, but I left him out because he really has only had one huge season. Most players in that category have had more than one.

    I didn’t say all of the “Steroids” guys were locks, just most of them.

    Keep the comments coming!

  • What about Robinson Cano?

  • Billy wagner on the bubble ? Also Omar Vizquel should be interesting, I wonder if he will be a first ballot or if he makes it at all…

  • What about Pedro Martinez, Good Ol’ Bonds, and Vlad?

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