Now that the Mets arbitration cases have been put to rest, let’s take a look on how your old pal here at Blogging Mets did predicting how much each player would get. Some websites like MLB Trade Rumors use sophisticated algorithms (or something) to figure it out. I don’t have the time or brains to do that — I just use my own common sense. Let’s compare my guesses to the “accurate model” that site uses. Let’s use “The Price is Right” rules — if you go over, you lose. The green means I win, the red goes to MLBTR.
Player My Guess MLBTR Actual
Noah Syndergaard $9m $9.9m $9.7m
Steven Matz $4m $5.3m $5m
Marcus Stroman $9m $11.8m $12m
Robert Gsellman $2m $1.2m $1.225m
Seth Lugo $2m $1.9m $2m
Edwin Diaz $4m $7m $5.1m
Brandon Nimmo $2m $1.7m $2.175m
Michael Conforto $7m $9.2m $8m
Jake Marisnek $3m $3m $3.3125m
So not too bad at all. The folks at MLBTR were actually closer to Syndergaard and Matz, but they went over, so they lose. They were pretty high on almost everyone and I was low. So maybe their “accurate model” is not particularly accurate at all.
So next season, just come right here instead of those sites claiming to be experts!