Looking Back on Mets Arbitration Estimates

Now that the Mets arbitration cases have been put to rest, let’s take a look on how your old pal here at Blogging Mets did predicting how much each player would get. Some websites like MLB Trade Rumors use sophisticated algorithms (or something) to figure it out. I don’t have the time or brains to do that — I just use my own common sense. Let’s compare my guesses to the “accurate model” that site uses. Let’s use “The Price is Right” rules — if you go over, you lose. The green means I win, the red goes to MLBTR.

Player                         My Guess    MLBTR          Actual
Noah Syndergaard      $9m           $9.9m            $9.7m
Steven Matz                  $4m           $5.3m            $5m  
Marcus Stroman          $9m           $11.8m           $12m
Robert Gsellman          $2m           $1.2m            $1.225m
Seth Lugo                       $2m           $1.9m            $2m
Edwin Diaz                    $4m           $7m                $5.1m
Brandon Nimmo          $2m           $1.7m              $2.175m
Michael Conforto         $7m           $9.2m             $8m
Jake Marisnek              $3m           $3m                 $3.3125m

So not too bad at all. The folks at MLBTR were actually closer to Syndergaard and Matz, but they went over, so they lose. They were pretty high on almost everyone and I was low. So maybe their “accurate model” is not particularly accurate at all.

So next season, just come right here instead of those sites claiming to be experts!

2 thoughts on “Looking Back on Mets Arbitration Estimates

  • January 12, 2020 at 7:26 pm
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    By “The Price is Right” rule, yes you would win …. but realistically, your guesses weren’t all that good
    when you consider the actual amounts predicted vs. what will be paid:
    – MLB was off on Syndergaard by $200K …. you were off by $700K
    – MLB was off on Matz by $300K … you were off by $1M
    – MLB was off on Stroman by $200K … you were off by $3M
    – MLB was off on Gsellman by $25K … you were off by $775K
    – MLB was off on Lugo by $100 … you were a direct hit
    – MLB was off on Diaz by $1.9M … you were off 1.1M
    – MLB was off on Nimmo by $475K … you were off by $175K
    – MLB was off on Conforto $1.2M … you were off by $1M
    – MLB was off on Marisnek by $312K … you were off by $312K

    You severely undervalued Syndergaard, Matz, Stroman, Diaz and Conforto and overvalued Gsellman. Props for direct hit on Lugo and very close on Nimmo and Marisinek. Good luck next year!

  • January 15, 2020 at 6:08 pm
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    My point was I did just as well using common sense as MLBTR did with its “accurate model.” Basically, you don’t need to be a self-described expert to predict these things. And I still think my guesses (except for Stroman, obviously) were pretty good. The others were all within a million dollars ($1.1m for Diaz). That’s in the ballpark in my view.

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