With the second half of the season upon us, it is not an inappropriate time to check in on my pre-season predictions and see how they are holding up. Not to toot my own horn or anything (because if I could do that, I would never leave the house!), but I was right about almost everything, thank you very much.
First off, in a March 30 post I called The 2011 Mets: The Season if “If,” I that I thought the Mets would finish the season at…
…81-81, in third place in the NL East behind the Phillies and the Braves.
Well, right now the Mets are 46-45, in third place in the NL East behind the Phillies and the Braves.
Then I went on to individual player predictions:
– If Jose Reyes is healthy; I think he is and will have a huge year. RIGHT
– If Carlos Beltran is healthy; I don’t think he is and will have an injury-plagued year. WRONG
– If Jason Bay rebounds; I think he will, although his latest setback is a concern. WRONG
– If Johan Santana can contribute; I don’t think we’ll see him before August. RIGHT
– If Ike Davis and Jonathon Niese can build on their rookie successes; I think they will. RIGHT
– If R.A. Dickey is the real deal; I think he will struggle at times this season. RIGHT
– If Josh Thole and Brad Emaus can do the job; Yes on Thole, no on Emaus. RIGHT
– If Mike Pelfrey can be an ace; I don’t think he is. RIGHT
– If Francisco Rodriguez is the old K-Rod; I think he will be. RIGHT
– If Angel Pagan can repeat his performance; I don’t think he will. RIGHT
– If Chris Young and Chris Capuano will stay healthy; I don’t think they will. RIGHT
I was really only wrong on two players — Bay and Beltran. In Beltran’s case, I am happy to be wrong. Davis was doing well before he got injured. Dickey has indeed struggled at times. The jury is still out on Thole, but that could be a wrong by the end of the season. And Capuano has been healthy so far, but of course Young is a distant memory.
When I said Reyes would have a “huge year,” I never imaged what he would actually do. Let’s hope he can come back off the disabled list sooner rather than later and pick up where he left off.
Speaking of Reyes, virtually every Mets “expert” said there was “no doubt” that he would be traded sometime during the season. I wrote:
I will go against conventional wisdom and say Reyes will not be traded.
So there. I also predicted a K-Rod trade, but so did everybody else.
I said David Wright was the only “given” on the team. I guess I was wrong about that, although his struggles for the last few weeks before he went on the DL were likely related to his fractured back.
Do I dare make predictions for the rest of the season? I’ll do that tomorrow.