Blogging Mets

The latest Hall of Fame ballot was mailed out on Monday, and just like last year there are no “no-doubt-about-it-first-ballot” guys on it. That’s always good news for the holdovers from previous years. And after four years of only Mark McGwire, this year begins the parade of suspected steroid users, with the debate intensifying over whether they should get in. Here’s a rundown of the top players and my predictions:

First Timers:

Rafael Palmeiro

Palmeiro would be one of those no-doubt-about-it guys if it weren’t for those darn PEDs that he vehemently denied taking that he, oh yeah, tested positive for. It will be interesting to see how many votes he gets. McGwire was steady at around 25% over his first four years, and there was never a positive test. What does Palmeiro get, 10%? On the field, he hit 569 homers with 1835 RBIs and had 3020 hits. Great numbers, even if he was never one of the most dominating players in the game — an All-Star only four times in 20 years, never coming close to an MVP award. He’s a classic “compiler” who hung around long enough to collect impressive stats. Don Sutton is his pitcher counterpart.

Jeff Bagwell

Bagwell is intriguing. He hit 449 home runs, 1529 RBIs, batted .297 and won an MVP. But he was only an All-Star four times in a relatively short 15 year career.  I think he’ll get some day, but not this year. Bagwell was excellent, but his numbers don’t measure up to previous first-ballot players — almost, but not quite. Having said that, I wouldn’t be shocked if he does get elected this year.

Larry Walker

Walker had a fine career — a .313 batting average with 383 homers and an MVP award. I think he falls short of enshrinement, and will be penalized for having his biggest years in the high altitude of Denver.

Juan Gonzalez

Steroid accusations have been swirling around Gonzalez since 2001 when a suitcase belonging to either him or his trainer was found to contain what might have been steroids. Steroid guru Jose Canseco claimed to have given him injections, and Gonzalez was mentioned in the Mitchell Report. All of this will overpower his 434 homers and two MVPs.

John Franco, Al Leiter, John Olerud
     
It’s the first year for all of these former Mets favorites, and none will make it. Franco has the best chance of the three, but if Lee Smith can’t get into the Hall with his 478 saves, Franco and his 424 saves don’t have a prayer.

Holdovers: 

Bert Blyleven

This is Blyleven’s 14th year on the ballot and it will be his last, because this is the year he finally gets in. He missed by five votes last year, and no one has ever been that close and not gotten in the following year. Blyleven certainly deserves it — 287 wins, 3.31 ERA, 3701 strikeouts (fifth all-time) and the greatest curveball most people have ever seen.

Roberto Alomar

Alomar missed by eight votes last year in his first time on the ballot. He’ll get in this year, even though he was hardly a Hall of Famer during his awful year and a half with the Mets. Boy, was he terrible.

Barry Larkin

Many predicted Larkin would be a first-ballot guy last year when he received a surprisingly low 51%. I think he’ll be one of those guys like Blyleven whose totals go up each year until he is finally elected. Not this time around, though.

Mark McGwire

As I said above, McGwire has held steady at around 25% during his first four years on the ballot. This all came before he finally admitted earlier this year that he did indeed use steroids. It’ll be interesting to see if this effects his vote total. My guess is it will go down to 15%-20%.

As the San Francisco Giants proved, starting pitching wins the World Series. If the Mets hope to join them as World Champs sometime this decade, the Mets will need to get more pitching, and fast because they certainly don’t have enough. Right now the Mets are going into the 2011 season with absolutely zero sure things in the rotation.

 Johan Santana is out until, well, who knows? June? The All-Star break? The silence on his condition is deafening.

Then there’s Mike Pelfrey, who is proving to be quite the enigma. He was so brilliant for the first half of the season, then reverted to his old ways in the middle of the summer when the Mets needed him most. Who knows which pitcher will show up for spring training.

R.A. Dickey was the team’s MVP in 2010. But he can revert to his journeyman ways just as easily as he can repeat his performance in 2011.

Jon Niese is the closest thing to a sure thing in the rotation as anyone, and that’s pretty sad considering he’s just 25 years old and coming off his rookie season. But he’s too untested to rely on him to be an anchor of the rotation.

The fifth starter? Dillon Gee? Jenrry Mejia? Oliver Perez, God forbid? Unknown at this time.

This is why the Mets need to go out and get one, if not two, solid and reliable starters. The Dodgers already signed Jon Garland, so he’s off the market. So is Javier Vazquez. Cliff Lee is out of the question, apparently.

So who’s left on the free agent market? Aaron Harang is a possibility. He’s had a couple of down years, but he’s got really good stuff when he’s on. Brandon Webb is intriguing. He’s missed the past two years (except for one start) due to injury. When uninjured he’s an ace. I would pay him $5 million plus incentives, but reports say he wants a deal similar to the one Ben Sheets signed last year coming off an injury — $10  million guaranteed. It didn’t work out too well, as he predictably spent time on the DL. The same thing could happen to Webb.

As far as the trade market, I repeat a deal I proposed in August – Carlos Beltran for Daisuke Matsuzaka (incidentally, MetsBlog proposed the same deal last month, writing that they haven’t seen that trade proposed anywhere before, that it was just their speculation. Well, it was proposed here first, just for the record). Dice-K is under contract for 2 more years at $10 million per, so the money is a wash. The Red Sox need help in the outfield, so this trade would help both teams.

Whatever happens over the next couple of months, you can rest assured that Sandy Alderson is on the case, unlike a year ago when Omar Minaya was content going into the season with Perez and John Maine in the rotation. That won’t happen this time around, right?

Mug Shots Courtesy Ultimate Mets Database

Now that Yankees GM Brian Cashman has basically dared Derek Jeter to go out and see what kind of market there is for his services, there is all sorts of speculation that he could jump ship, swim across the river and wash ashore in Flushing. It’s not likely to happen for several reasons, but let’s take a look at it anyway.

First off, the Mets are pretty well set at shortstop with Jose Reyes. Even if they were to trade him, would the Mets spend their limited payroll flexibility on a $15 million shortstop with declining skills? Probably not.

Now, if Jeter (left, with future teammate? David Wright) is willing or able to play second base, and might take, say $10 million per year, it might well be worth it. His salary would probably pay for itself by way of ticket and jersey sales. And it would be a nice “screw you” to our friendly neighbors in The Bronx.

Jeter could justify it by saying, “Look, the Yankees didn’t want me, but I wanted to stay loyal to New York, so I am joining the Mets.”

I agree with Jeter’s agent Casey Close when he said he was “baffled” by the Yankees negotiating tactics. The Yankees seem to throw around money to everyone, but when it comes to the face of the franchise, the modern day Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle rolled into one, suddenly the purse strings are snapped shut.

Compare this to the Alex Rodriguez negotiations. After A-Rod famously opted out of his contract during the 2007 World Series, the Yankees said, “So long. Don’t let the door hit you in the butt on the way out.” Rodriguez went out to see what the market for him was, and there wasn’t much. So he went back to the Yankees on his knees, without Scott Boras, and begged for a contract. The Yankees responded with 10-years, $275 million, wrapping up A-Rod through his 42nd birthday.

Knowing there was virtually no market for him, the Yankees probably could have offered $20 million for five years and he would have taken it. Instead, they did what they did — for a player the fans hated then, and still have mixed feelings about.

Yes, the Jeter negotiations are different. Jeter is not the player A-Rod is. A-Rod was 31 when he signed the contract; Jeter is 36. But they were willing to tie up Rodriguez until he is 42. They are only filling to go to 39 for their franchise player. They reportedly offered him $15 million per year, a pay cut of nearly $4 million per year.

Now don’t get me wrong – $15 million for a middle infielder on the downside of his career is a fair offer. But this is Derek Jeter, a Yankee legend, not just some run-of-the-mill shortstop. The Yankees need to show him more respect for what he’s done for the franchise. Jeter reportedly wants six years. That’s too much, in my opinion. I think a four-year, $80 million contract is appropriate.

That’s a whole lot of money, yes. But with the way the Yankees throw money around to medicore talent (A.J. Burnett, Carl Pavano,Kei Igawa, do I really need to go on?), they should give some extra cash to a player who has actually earned it.

Terry Collins was introduced Tuesday as the new manager of the New York Mets. He may not have been the first choice of Mets fans. Or the second. Or the third… Well, you get the point. But in any case, he is now the leader of the team, and we’ve got to get behind him. Here is his opening statement at his news conference:  

Taking a break from Sunday’s disappointing news that Terry Collins will be named manager and Tuesday’s sure-to-be disappointing news conference introducing Terry Collins as manager…

There is a report from a website called Around the Horn that claims the Mets and Diamondbacks are discussing what would be a blockbuster trade — shortstop Stephen Drew and outfielder Justin Upton would head to Queens for Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Jenrry Mejia.

Before we get to the trade itself, let’s see how reliable this rumor is. The site quotes an “industry source,” linked to a Daily News story naming the same industry source as the person saying Omar Minaya was offered a job with the Diamondbacks as an adivser to the GM. No name for this source is given, not even which team employs this person. Could this industry source be Minaya himself? We’ll get to that in a moment.

Now to the trade. I don’t really know much about Drew and Upton, but they are both young, reasonably inexpensive and have put up decent numbers in their short careers. Both would be nice additions to the team, depending on the cost and need.

I have no problem trading Beltran, as long as the Mets are not picking up a major portion of his contract. Mejia looks promising, but a lot of prospects do. Plus, he had some injury problems last season. He’s as likely to make it big in the majors as he’s likely not to.

As far as Reyes, I am dead set against trading him. A lot of fans would like to see him go, but I like him a lot. When he’s on his game, not many players in the league can do what he does. Yes, there have been injuries, but he played four straight years without injury. There’s no reason he can’t do it again.

The only reason to do this trade would be for money; Beltran and Reyes will make $30 million between them, Drew and Upton around $10 million. The Mets could use that $20 million for much-needed pitching.

As it is, I don’t like this trade very much. If they have to pay most of Beltran’s contract, this would be absolutely ridiculous.

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The same website last week proposed an Adrian Gonzalez for Ike Davis and either Jenrry Mejia or Bobby Parnell trade. I’m not too sure about this one, either. Gonzalez is a superstar, no question about it. And he’ll be expected to be paid as one. His contract is up after the 2011 season. He’ll likely command $15-$20 million per year. Can the Mets pay that?

And should they pay that much to anyone when they have a solid first baseman in Davis? I don’t think Davis will ever be as good as Gonzalez, but he’s still young and has a bright future. Plus, they can have him for five more reasonable contracts before he becomes a free agent. The Mets can use the difference between Davis’ and Gonzalez’s pay on a host of other problems.

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Now to Minaya. He’s kept quiet since being fired, up until this weekend, when word leaked out about his alleged job offer. In fact, Minaya claims he has several suitors.

“I have many offers for different positions, including a few as assistant general manager, but I’m in no hurry,” Minaya told ESPNdeportes.com.

Raise your hand if you are shocked Minaya has even one job offer, let alone “many.” In reporting its story, the Daily News said Minaya is respected around the league for his “interpersonal skills.” I’m not exactly sure what that means, but we’ve all heard Minaya speak. I’ll just leave it at that.

Now, does Minaya really have any job offers at all? The Diamondbacks thing is probably real, because the team would have denied it by now if it were made up. But the others? Well, I don’t want to call Minaya a liar, but he’s a liar. Maybe not about this, but in general. I’ve thought this ever since the news conference announcing the signing of Pedro Martinez prior to the 2005 season. He said, “I can’t tell you how many players have called me and said they want to play for the Mets.” The statement seemed disingenuous to me then, and time proved it a lie. Where were all these players over the years who clamored to play for the Mets? Did Minaya go out and get them? Of course not, because they didn’t exist.

So Minaya could be the “industry source” who leaked his own job offer and is making up the Reyes trade. I wouldn’t put it past him.

According to multiple reports Sunday afternoon, the Mets have decided on Terry Collins as their next manager.  ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin says a team source confirms the reports.

If true, Collins beats out Bob Melvin, Chip Hale and fan favorite Wally Backman. Collins has not managed in the majors since 1999 when he was ousted from the Angels amid a player coup. He previously managed the Astros, and has an underwhelming 444-434 career record.

Collins is reputed to have an intense personality, which may be what this team needs after Jerry Manuel’s nice-guy act and whispers of discipline problems on the team.

This is likely to be greeted by Mets fans with a long sustained yawn.

 And oh yeah, disregard my previous post.

I will start this off my saying I am usually wrong when I make predictions. I thought George W. Bush would lose. Twice. I predicted that CC Sabathia would win the Cy Young easily. I picked Dewey over Truman. So take it with a grain of salt when I say I think Chip Hale will be the next manager of the New York Mets.

As I asked in my last column, why is Sandy Alderson wasting his time with second interviews with Hale and Wally Backman if he is insisting that the new manager have prior experience? I think it’s because while Alderson would ideally like that, he is underwhelmed by Bob Melvin and Terry Collins, as virtually every Mets fan is.

Interviewing Backman could be out of respect for one of the team’s minor league managers who is also the favorite of many of the fans. But Chip Hale? Yes, he is also an employee, but the public is not clamoring for him. If Hale did not get a second interview, Mets fans would not have minded. They would have gone ballistic if Backman didn’t get one. There really is no reason for Hale to still be involved in the process if he is not a very serious candidate for the job.

 Reports say Alderson was impressed by Hale, and I think he will make a bold move and pick him. Why Hale over Backman? Well, Alderson is the kind of guy who makes safe choices. The safe choice, of course, would be Melvin or Collins. But if he’s going to take a risk, I think he will take a safe risk (if there even is such a thing), and pick Hale. Backman is still a bit of a wild card; Hale was with the major league team last season and is probably more predictable than Backman.

So there you have it. I have made my prediction. I will likely be wrong, but if not, make sure you remember where you read it first.

The Mets have announced that they have completed the second round of interviews for their manager’s job, meeting with Wally Backman, Terry Collins, Chip Hale and Bob Melvin. Reports say the Mets will announce the new skipper at a news conference next Tuesday.

I really have no clue whom the Mets will pick. On one hand, Sandy Alderson has said numerous times that he wants someone with previous managerial experience, If that is the case, why string Backman and Hale along? Interviewing Backman again could be for the benefit of fans, who really want him to get the job. But Hale? No one is clamoring for him.

I of course have no way of knowing this, but I suspect that deep down Alderson prefers Backman or Hale, both of whom reportedly impressed him during their interviews. But either of those guys would be risks — Collins and Melvin have experience and would be safer choices. Does Alderson want to start his tenure off with a risky move when he could make a safe one? I think that will be the question he will try to answer over what is sure to be a long, rumor-filled weekend.

So I ask you the question — who  do you think will be the next manager of the Mets? Not the one you want to get the job, because Backman would win overwhelmingly, but whom you think Alderson will choose?

Here’s what I wrote last month in predicting that CC Sabathia should easily win the Cy Young award, and that Felix Hernandez should not even be in the conversation:

There is no way a pitcher with 13 wins should get the Cy Young… If that happens, the sabermetricians win, and I’m done.

I believed that then, and I still believe it despite Hernandez winning the award in overwhelming fashion on Thursday, earning 21 of the 28 first place votes. Sabathia didn’t even finish second — David Price did.

I understand all of the arguments in favor of Hernandez — he led the league with a minuscule 2.27 ERA, was second in strikeouts with 232 and had superior numbers that the sabermetrics crowd love. I’m not saying Hernandez is not a great pitcher and did not have a solid season, but I’ll say it again — he only won 13 games (against 12 loses, mind you).

His advocates say he was plagued by poor run support. They are absolutely right, but you know what, too bad. That’s not an excuse to completely ignore the most important stat in all of baseball — wins. This game is judged on whether you win or lose. And Hernandez did not win, plain and simple

I think every part of a pitcher’s record should be taken into account when judging his season, and that includes won-loss. You just can’t discount one part of a pitcher’s record if it doesn’t suit your purposes, and that’s just what the voters did, in my opinion.

It would be different if there were no other solid candidates, but there were — Sabathia, Price and Jon Lester, who finished fourth were all deserving.

So I stand by my earlier statement. As far as the “I’m done” part, well, I’m not standing by that. Hell, I didn’t even know what it meant when I wrote it. It just sounded good!

This Mets managerial search must be getting to me. I had a dream the other night — and I swear this is true — that the Mets named Walter Alston as their manager. And I just kept thinking, “He’s still alive?” No, Alston is not alive, and the two apparent front-runners for the job – Bob Melvin and Terry Collins — are not up to Alston’s standards, dead or alive.

In any case, Sandy Alderson announced down at the GM meetings in Orlando that he is done with the first round of interviews, and hopes to name a new manager by Thanksgiving. It’s not yet known who will get called back, but it looks like it will definitely be Melvin and Collins, and perhaps Wally Backman and Chip Hale.

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post had an interesting article Tuesday that quoted David Wright complaining that there was “no discipline here whatsoever,” and bemoaning the lack of professionalism on the team. I don’t doubt any of that, but here’s my question: Why didn’t Wright do anything about it? As the second-longest tenured member of the team (Jose Reyes is number one), he has every right to stand in the middle of the clubhouse and lash out at his “unprofessional” teammates. Not only does he have the right, he has the obligation. He is supposed to be the leader of the Mets, and that’s what a leader does.

There has been talk over the years of Wright’s reluctance to take the leadership role, that it was difficult for him to do so with such strong-willed veterans as Carlos Delgado on the team. Well, Delgado was gone last year, and there should have been no one else to intimidate Wright out of doing it. But for some reason, Wright was apparently still reluctant. Maybe the Mets need to officially name him Captain — maybe that’s what is missing.

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The Marlins don’t mess around. Just a few days after contract talks broke down with Dan Uggla and the team said he was on the trading block, he was dealt to the Braves for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn. Infante and Dunn are good players, but I wonder if the Marlins could have gotten more for the slugging Uggla if they had waited. But I guess after turning down a four-year, $48 million offer from the Marlins, many teams might have been scared off. Reports say Uggla insisted on a five-year, $71 million deal.