Blogging Mets

Before my doctor tells me to turn my head and cough or bend over and relax, we talk about the Mets. I try to keep the conversation going for as long as possible, for obvious reasons. Before a fortunately non-invasive recent visit, he asked me what I thought about the team’s prospects for 2011. I told him it didn’t look good, but if everything falls into place, who knows?

“If” everything falls in to place. The Mets are one big if.

There is pretty much only one given on the team, and that would be David Wright. And even with him, the stink of that strange 2009 season hasn’t fully washed away. He needs one more season to ensure that 2009 was just an aberration. He also needs to cut back on his strikeouts — 160 whiffs are unacceptable.

Then we have all of the ifs:

– If Jose Reyes is healthy;  I think he is and will have a huge year.
– If Carlos Beltran is healthy; I don’t think he is and will have an injury-plagued year.
– If Jason Bay rebounds; I think he will, although his latest setback is a concern.
– If Johan Santana can contribute; I don’t think we’ll see him before August.
– If Ike Davis and Jonathon Niese can build on their rookie successes; I think they will.
– If R.A. Dickey is the real deal; I think he will struggle at times this season.
– If Josh Thole and Brad Emaus can do the job; Yes on Thole, no on Emaus.
– If Mike Pelfrey can be an ace; I don’t think he is.
– If Francisco Rodriguez is the old K-Rod; I think he will be.
– If Angel Pagan can repeat his performance; I don’t think he will.
– If Chris Young and Chris Capuano will stay healthy; I don’t think they will.

Well, that’s most of the team. If all of the ifs can turn positive, then the Mets have a realistic chance of contending. But really, what are the odds of that? If half of the ifs happen, which is more likely, then the Mets are a .500 team. And that’s where I think they’ll end up — 81-81, in third place in the NL East behind the Phillies and the Braves.

As far as mid-season trades, I will go against conventional wisdom and say Reyes will not be traded. As I said above, he will have a big year, and I will make the bold prediction that the Mets will sign him to an extension – in the neighborhood of 4-years, $60 million.

K-Rod will also have a big year, and will be traded to a contending team at the deadline. Because of that $17.5 million vesting option the Mets will get little in return, but at least they won’t have that ridiculous contract on the books next season.

The Mets will be stuck with Beltran all season because he will be too damaged to trade.

Sandy Alderson could also surprise us and trade someone like Young or Capuano if they are healthy and Alderson decides he doesn’t see them contributing to the 2012 team, the way Omar Minaya should have traded Pedro Feliciano at the trade deadline last season.

Despite what promises to be a pretty rough year, I can’t wait for the season to start. Watching a bad Mets team is better than watching no Mets team at all.

Jason Bay could start the 2011 season where he ended the 2010 campaign — on the disabled list. Bay was scratched from Tuesday’s spring training game with a strained muscle in his rib cage. GM Sandy Alderson said he would probably wait until just before the Thursday 11am deadline to set his roster before deciding what to do with Bay.

If Bay is out, Lucas Duda could be the starting left fielder. Or Nick Evans could get the spot, provided he clears waivers. It not known yet if he has cleared.

But Pat Misch has cleared waivers, and has 72 hours to decide whether to accept an assignment to Triple-A Buffalo. I’m glad Misch cleared. I think he is good and has not really been given a chance to show what he can do. I predict we will be seeing a lot of him this season is he stays with the Mets.

In other roster moves, Blaine Boyer made the bullpen, Manny Acosta was designated for assignment, and the Mets have asked Jason Isringhausen to report to extended spring training to make sure his elbow is all right. No word yet on whether he will report.

Catcher Ronny Paulino could also head to the DL with a stomach/colon issue that was revealed in a blood test. So far his Mets career is not going particularly well — he was late for spring training because of visa issues, and he will miss the first eight games anyway to finish off a steroid suspension. 

In a curious move, the Mets traded reliever Eddie Kunz to the Padres for first baseman Allan Dykstra (no relation to Lenny or his son Cutter, who was also traded a couple of days ago). At one point Kunz was being touted as the closer of the future. But apparently he regressed last year and the Mets have given up in him. The Mets once gave up on another closer and sent him to San Diego. His name was Heath Bell. Just saying.

But the big news is Bay. The Mets need a big year from Bay if they have any illusions of contending, or even finishing at .500. Let’s hope this is not something that will linger throughout the year.

Of all the horrible, self-serving policies Bud Selig has enacted during his reign of terror as MLB commissioner, none is worse than revenue sharing. It penalizes major market teams and rewards small market clubs that are often run incompetently, like, say, the Milwaukee Brewers when Selig’s “family” owned it for a time during his time as commissioner.

A report in Friday’s The New York Times said the Mets lost $50 million in 2010. It didn’t say how much the team contributed to revenue sharing, but the report said it was “about 40%” less than in 2009, when the Mets contributed $40 million (the report said the Mets lost $10 million that season). So that means the Mets paid small market teams around $24 million in 2010 in a year in which they lost $50 million.

A report in Forbes earlier in the week said the Mets had “negative operating income” of $6 million in 2010. I’m not exactly sure how to reconcile this report with the $50 million figure — maybe it’s net loss vs. gross loss. Regardless, the Mets are losing money yet still have to contribute to revenue sharing.

The Forbes report said the Pirates had an operating profit of $25 million, while the Marlins made $20 million. These are teams with relative minuscule payrolls that receive large revenue sharing checks. These teams are free to cheat their fans by refusing to spend on payroll, then pocketing their revenue checks for a tidy little profit.

None of this seems fair. Yes, large market teams do have higher revenues, but they also have much higher expenses. Worker salaries are higher in New York than, say, Pittsburgh, because it is much more expense to live in New York. The same logic should apply to baseball.

If there has to be revenue sharing (and I don’t think there should), I think it should be based on a team’s profit rather than revenue. That would take into account the increased expenses of being in a major city.

Instead of big market teams writing checks to their small city counterparts, perhaps a system could be set up in which the small market teams get a larger percentage of shared revenue items. Currently the 30 teams equally share proceeds from the national TV contract, merchandising, Internet, etc. Maybe MLB should distribute that money unevenly and give a bigger share to small market teams. This way large market teams can keep their money and stop subsidizing losing operations.

Or maybe Selig can distribute some of his reported $17 million salary to the poor, poor small market teams. Don’t hold your breath waiting for that to happen.

Listen, I have nothing against Brad Emaus. I’m sure he’s a very nice guy. But Daniel Murphy deserves to get the second base job over him, despite reports the Mets are getting set to tab Emaus for the job.

First of all, Murphy is batting .310 this spring with ten RBIs. Emaus is batting .293, but before going 4-4 in Thursday’s 16-run, 23-hit barrage against the Cardinals, he was hitting a paltry .216. Neither one is particularly graceful in the field, so there is no clear defensive advantage.

But let’s look at what Murphy has done for the Mets. In his rookie year in 2008, he came out of nowhere to hit .313 in 39 games. Then in 2009 he was given the starting left field job — a position he never played before. Murphy was embarrassed in the outfield, but he sucked it up for the team. His reprieve came when Carlos Delgado got injured and Murphy was moved to first. He proved to be a decent defensive first baseman, and he led the team in home runs (albeit with just 12).

He was slated to be the starting first baseman in 2010, but he got injured in spring training. While he recovered Ike Davis claimed the job, so Murphy was sent to the minors to learn how to play second base. In just his second game he suffered a year-ending knee injury on an arguably dirty take-out slide while turning a double play.

So after all of this, after doing everything the Mets have asked of him, Murphy finds himself in a battle with a player who has never played in a major league game. If Emaus were clearly superior to Murphy then fine, give him the job. But he is not.

Emaus is only on the team because Mets assistant J.P. Ricciardi drafted him in 2007 when he was GM of the Blue Jays. In the 11th round, mind you. Ricciardi has high hopes for Emaus, thinks he can hit 15 homers a season and bat .270-.280. Where Ricciardi comes up with this I have no idea — Eamus hit 15 homers just once in four minor league seasons. He does have a decent on base percentage, which to Ricciardi and the rest of the sabermetricians in the front office means he is the second coming of Stan Musial.

Murphy has proven he can hit major league pitching. He deserves the job. Does loyalty count for nothing anymore?

To quote former President Gerald R. Ford, “Our long national nightmare is over.” For the nation at that time that meant the end of Richard Nixon’s presidency (incidentally, Ford actually objected to that now-iconic line, but his speechwriters insisted that he leave it in). For Mets fans now, it means Oliver Perez will never be seen in a Mets uniform again. The Mets finally did the inevitable on Monday, releasing Perez and eating the $12 million remaining on his contract.

“The velocity was not there. The command was not there,” GM Sandy Alderson said. “It wasn’t going to work in a starting role. It didn’t appear as if it were going to work in a relief role, at least anytime soon.”

Speaking about both Perez (left, watching Julia Stiles, who is a far superior pitcher than Perez) and the recently departed Luis Castillo (who signed a minor league deal with the Phillies on Monday. Ha ha ha…) Alderson said:

“For a variety of reasons it was important to have them in camp. To start with, I didn’t want to do anything rash or reflexive given what I had heard about the situation here. And so I think it was important to bring them to camp, and then once brought to camp give them a legitimate opportunity. I think in both cases we tried to do that.”

At least Perez was realistic, unlike Castillo who felt he wasn’t given a fair chance.

“I think they gave me an opportunity,” Perez said. “They were fair with me when I came here. ‘We’re going to give you an opportunity to be a starter.’ I didn’t do anything great. They moved me to the bullpen trying to be a lefty specialist. And the last game, that was a real horrible job.”

So what did the Mets get  out of Perez for $36 million?: A record of 3-9 with a 6.81 ERA in 31 appearances, 21 of which were starts. Not a good investment by Omar Minaya on behalf of the Wilpons, who have learned a thing or two recently about bad investments (insert Madoff joke here).

Too bad we can’t send Perez off like we did Nixon — it would be interesting to see Perez recreate that strange, awkward wave from the helicopter steps.

There has been a lot of nonsense in the media over the past couple of days regarding the release of Luis Castillo. For some reason, many writers insist on finding reasons for his banishment other than his diminishing skills on the field.

The most common refrain was that it was fan-driven, that the Mets did it to please fans who hated Castillo (one writer said that hate was based on race, which is just ridiculous).Since when does the front office listen to fans? It is just ludicrous. Except in this case, the man who made the decision sort of validated the theory.

Here’s what GM Sandy Alderson said about the fans’ feelings for Castillo in regards to his release.

“I don’t think there’s any question that there’s some linkage between his situation and a perception of the Mets that has existed to this point. That’s something that was taken into account. At some point, you have to make an organizational decision that goes beyond just an ability to play or not play. So those things are relevant. And you try not to make them so controlling that it dictates the final decision under any circumstances. Realistically, it’s a factor.”

So suddenly Alderson cares about the wishes of the fans? If he really cared he would have hired fan favorite Wally Backman as manager instead of Terry Collins, who was the favorite of no one.

I wonder why Alderson said that. Does he just not want to accept responsibility for his decision? What he should have said was, “I understand the fans feelings for Castillo and we will do everything to make our fans happy. But this was strictly a baseball decision. End of story.” If Alderson really wants to please the fans, there are a myriad of off-field things the organization can do, such as retire the numbers of Keith Hernandez and Mike Piazza or make Citi Field more of a Mets home than a Dodgers shrine. These are things where the voice of the fans should be heard and obliged.

One down, one to go. The Mets have released Luis Castillo, who apparently went to the same School of Delusion as Heath Bell and Bengie Molina.

GM Sandy Alderson said, ”After a long evaluation during spring training, after consulting with Terry (Collins) and the coaching staff, I made a recommendation to ownership in the best interest of the organization and Louie that he be released. Ownership approved.”

I’m sure it’s killing the cash-strapped Wilpons to eat $6 million, but it needed to be done.

Not so, according to Castillo (left, with a guy who will hopefully soon join him on the unemployment line). He told Newsday what he said during the meeting with Alderson. “I said I came here to play and you didn’t give me the chance. You didn’t use me.”

Um, Castillo was given the chance for three and a half years to show what he could do. The Mets and their fans had seen enough of this guy to know he is useless. He has lost all range in the field, his outfield-grass power has diminished, and he can’t even steal bases anymore. He can still sacrifice bunt in the first inning very well, however.

On this glorious day for Mets fans, Andy Martino in the New York Daily News speculates that Mets fans hate Castillo so much because of his race. Martino is grasping at straws.

The fans hate Castillo for one simple reason — after signing what we all knew (except for Omar Minaya and the Wilpons, apparently) was a ridiculous, ill-conceived contract, he reported to spring training in horrible shape. He was healthy enough to play in only 87 games in 2008, batting a paltry .245. That season sealed his fate. His .302 batting average in 2009 was too little, too late.

Incidentally, I don’t think the hatred has anything to do with Castillo’s infamous dropped fly ball against the Yankees in 2009. He wasn’t mercifully booed in his first game back home after the error, and was even given a sarcastic cheer when he caught a pop-up. I think fans forgave Castillo for that — it was one error (albeit a huge one) in one game. It was his entire Mets career that resulted in the hatred.

So now Castillo is gone. Oliver Perez cannot be far behind.

So let me get this straight — Carlos Beltran was able to come back last season and play 64 games. He looked a bit hobbled at times, but at least he was still able to get out onto the field. Then, after having the entire off-season to rest and rehab, he has been able to play just one spring training game and he is in far worse shape than he was last year. Who gets less healthy in the off-season?

And it’s not even his surgically-repaired right knee (although I’ll bet that is not in great shape, either) that’s bothering him. It’s the left knee, which has suddenly developed tendonitis.

I always thought Beltran was a little soft. Whenever he would stumble, I would say to myself, “he’ll be out six to eight weeks.” I’m not saying his current injuries are not real, it’s just that I think he’s being extra cautious before agreeing to play in meaningless spring games.

I wonder how much his scummy agent Scott Boras is whispering in his ear. I wouldn’t put it past Boras to tell him, “Don’t risk serious injury, Carlos. We have to get you a big contract after this season.”

Players certainly have to think about their future — they can’t risk sustaining a career-ending injury and take the field if they are not feeling 100% (or close to it). However, Beltran has a contract to play for the New York Mets in 2011. He’s got to play if he is able, not sit out for extended periods in order to secure a contract for 2012 and beyond.

Again, I am not saying Beltran is doing this. He’s a professional who has a lot of pride. I can’t say the same about his agent, however.

Kevin Kernan of the New York Post is the latest scribe to jump on the “Jose Reyes’s days with the Met are numbered” bandwagon — in fact Kernan’s Wednesday column is aptly titled “Reyes Days with Mets Numbered.” I’m just not buying it.

I know all about the Mets financial problems, and this decision will come down to money. If Reyes insists on taking this to free agency and he can score a “Carl Crawford-like” contract as the media dubbed it, then yes, he will likely not be a Met next year. There is no way the Mets are paying anyone upwards of $140 million whose name is not Pujols (and he would cost double that).

But if Reyes is healthy (which he is) and he is having one of his vintage years, I can see the Mets trying to sign him to a long-term deal in the middle of the season. What if the Mets offered him a four-year, $60 million deal? That is conceivable, considering the Mets have only $65 million committed for 2012. That still leaves $20 million to spend towards a payroll of $100 million, which is where I think the Mets will end up.

But would Reyes take it? In 2006 he signed what amounted to a five-year deal that paid him an average of nearly $7 million per year. He said he took what some considered a below-market deal so he could secure his family’s financial future. Assuming that is still secure, is Reyes willing to take a shorter, but still lucrative offer to stay with the Mets, or would he risk getting injured in the second half of the season and throwing that $60 million away?

I have a feeling Reyes would take it. $15 million for a shortstop is nothing to sneeze at. Some guy named Jeter just signed for a little more than that across town, and he’s already a legend. How much more would Reyes command on the open market? Not much more, in my opinion.

It would make sense from the Mets point of view as well. Reyes is the second most popular player on a team whose fan base is already disenchanted. Do they really want to push more fans away? It also makes sense as a baseball decision. Reyes sparks the entire team. Who leads off if he’s not around?

In conclusion, don’t believe the hype and assume Reyes’s days as a Mets are numbered. As we know all know, anything can happen with the New York Mets.

Calling Carlos Baerga and Roberto Alomar — no one seems to want to play second base for the New York Mets. The job is there for the taking, but no one is stepping up to claim it.

Daniel Murphy (left) – certainly the favorite of the fans — committed two errors in Saturday’s game against the Braves, proving what a defensive liability he would be. He is hitting over .300 this spring, which is what he’s supposed to do. Brad Emaus and Justin Turner are both hitting .200. And Luis Castillo is, well, Luis Castillo. In his defense, he is hitting .318, but by all accounts he has lost all range in the field.

With no one seizing the opportunity, the Mets are considering a fifth player — Luis Hernandez. He was the starter for a short time last season before breaking his foot in September — then hitting a home run on the next pitch.

These are not particularly appealing options, but given the Mets financial situation, that’s all there is. There is no help on the way. I’m hoping they give the job to Murphy. He’s proven he can hit at the major league level, and in time he might feel comfortable in the field. Although he never got comfortable in left field, and we all thought eventually he would.

It would also give the Mets an all home-grown infield. Along with Josh Thole and kind of, sort of Angel Pagan, six of the eight regulars would be home-grown. That’s kind of nice.

Any way you look at it, it won’t be pretty at second base in 2011.