Tuesday, May 21st, 2013

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Analyzing 2012 Hall of Fame Ballot

This year’s Hall of Fame ballot released on Wednesday could be the lamest one in recent memory. The ESPN.com headline on its story says it all:

Bernie Williams, Bill Mueller Top Ballot

No disrespect to Bill Mueller, but when he tops any ballot, you can rest assured the remaining names are not very impressive. Hell, no one even knows how to pronounce his last name (it’s like Miller, I think).

These, of course, are only the first-timers on the ballot. Other notables include former Mets Edgardo Alfonzo and Jeromy Burnitz. None of them should be making Cooperstown reservations for July. Sure, Yankees fans will make some noise about Williams, and while he had an excellent career, is just not Hall of Fame worthy.

There are plenty of holdovers, most of whom are also reasonably unimpressive (if not they wouldn’t be holdovers). And perhaps we need this down year because next year we will have the mother of all ballots with which to contend — Mike Piazza, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling, and Craig Biggio will all be up for consideration.

But a few players have a good chance of being elected this year. Here are the top candidates:

Barry Larkin
larkin

This will be Larkin’s third try, and likely his last because I predict he will be elected. Many people thought he was a slam-dunk first ballot HOFer, but they turned out to be wrong. He got 62% last year, and with little competition this year he will get in. He is certainly deserving — he was the dominant shortstop in the National League in the 1990s, winning the MVP in 1995. Larkin was a 12-time All-Star, won nine Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves.

Jeff Bagwell
bagwell

I think Bagwell will also get in. On his first time last year he garnered a surprisingly low 41% of the vote. There were a lot of articles written at this time last year about Bagwell and steroids. Nobody ever accused him of taking them, but some criticized him for never speaking out against them, which is just absolute nonsense. I think many writers punished him for that by denying him first ballot distinction. Just like they punished Roberto Alomar for his infamous spitting incident and then elected him the second year, I think the same thing will happen with Bagwell. Bagwell was a Rookie-of-the-Year and an MVP winner. He hit 449 home runs in a 15-year career.

Jack Morris
morris

Time is running short for Morris. This is his 13th year on the ballot — only two more years left. Morris got 53% of the vote last year, and I don’t see it going any higher. Morris had a fine career, winning 254 games, but his 3.90 era would be the highest of any Hall of Fame starter. He never won a Cy Young, finishing as high as third twice.

Lee Smith
smith

His 10th year on the ballot, he got 45% last year. He retired as the all-time saves leader, but two players have already surpassed him, and by more than 100 saves. He has no shot.

Tim Raines
raines

A lot of people love Raines, calling him the National League’s Rickey Henderson. I think he falls well short of that. He’ll never get in.

Steroid Guys
steroid

Mark McGwire will get his usual 20% or so, Rafael Palmeiro will get enough votes to remain on the ballot, but Juan Gonzalez may not even get that much. None of these guys is getting in.

It will be interesting to see what happens next year, though. It is unlikely that the writers will elect Bonds, Clemens or Sosa, but if they do get in, does that open the door for all of the steroid guys? And what about Piazza? There have been whispers for years about possible steroid use but no evidence, not even circumstantial evidence. Mets fans pray this is not true. But do the writers ignore the whispers, or is he lumped in with the players who have failed tests or where the evidence can reasonably point to steroid use? These are all questions for next year.


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Mets were Interested in Jonathan Broxton

That we are only now learning that the Mets were interested in closer Jonathan Broxton, who signed Tuesday with the Royals, shows how Sandy Alderson plans on doing business this winter — quietly and under the radar.

ESPN.com‘s Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Mets were among three other teams who were the “most ardent pursuers” of Broxton. Andy McCullough of the Newark Star Ledger went on Twitter to say that he heard that “some within the Mets organization” felt the $4 million Broxton got from Kansas City “was too pricey.”

I was intrigued by Broxton. Yes, he only appeared in 12 games in 2011 and had arthroscopic surgery on his elbow in September, but when he was healthy Broxton was one of the best young closers in the game. He saved 36 games in 2009, striking out a stunning 114 batters in just 76 innings. He did regress some in 2010 before his injury, but he is only 27 years old. There could be a lot of upside there.

So where do the Mets go from here? MLB.com‘s Anthony DiComo reports the Mets are “strong players” for Octavio Dotel. Remember him? I wouldn’t mind if he were in the bullpen in 2012, but not as the closer. I think the Mets can do better than a 38-year-old journeyman who has pitched for five teams in the last two seasons finishing up their games.

But who really knows? Alderson is not giving any clues, which while frustrating to fans, is probably the correct way to run a ball club.


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Mets Should Sign David Wright for Life

There is a lot of speculation about the Mets trading David Wright. I don’t think it will happen, but instead of considering dealing Wright, the Mets should be thinking about signing him for life.

When Wright signed was negotiating his last contract in 2006, he asked for a deal that would take him through the end of his career. Then-GM Omar Minaya told him, “Let’s not get ahead of ourselves” (although it likely took him 10 minutes and 3000 words to say it). But that’s how much Wright wants to be a Met. He grew up in Norfolk rooting for the Mets Triple-A team as well as the big club and it was always his dream to play for the Mets for his entire career. The Mets should make that dream come true.

david wright

Let’s face it — even though it looks like the Mets are beginning to operate as a small-market team, they are not. There is nothing wrong with budgeting an eight-figure salary for Wright over the next seven years. They can afford it.

He is signed for the next two seasons, and I really think if the Mets offered him a five-year extension at around $15 million per year with a no-trade clause he would take it. It’s probably less than he can get on the open market, but $15 million is certainly not slave wages, and he can easily make up the difference in endorsements. Most importantly for Wright, apparently, it would allow him to spend his entire career with the Mets.

(By the way, I wouldn’t go further than five years because that would take him through his 35th birthday, which should be the cutoff for long-term contracts. After that I would go year-to-year.)

What is the advantage for the Mets? Well, they lock up an elite player (and yes, I still think David Wright is an elite player) at a reasonable salary. Plus, they send a message to their beleaguered and frustrated fan base that their favorite player will be here for the long-term, especially if they lose Jose Reyes.

I would wait, however, until a couple of months into the 2012 season to make a deal. I would want to make sure David Wright is healthy and is responding as expected to the new Citi Field dimensions. But those those things come to pass, they should lock him up and make him the piece around which the future Mets are built.

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Video: Very Brief Thanksgiving Wishes from Mets

The New York Mets wish you a very happy Thanksgiving — or do they? This has to be the briefest holiday greeting ever produced. I guess the Mets could not come up with anything for which Mets fans actually have to be thankful.


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Dwight Gooden on Justin Verlander MVP

Dwight Gooden is sounding off on Justin Verlander winning the MVP award, saying “Hey, what about me?!” He tweeted:

Dwight Gooden

@DocGooden16Dwight Gooden 
Very happy for @JustinVerlanderglad 2 c pitchers get the recognition 4 the MVP,still dont know how I didn’t finish in top 5 n 85 24-4 1.53
5 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone Favorite Retweet Reply

First of all, Gooden did finish in the top five — he finished fourth. But he absolutely, positively should have won the MVP that year.

Gooden won the pitching Triple Crown by going 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA and 268 strikeouts. Anyone who was lucky enough to see him pitch that season  saw some of the greatest pitching they will ever see in their lives. He was simply unhittable.

Gooden finished behind Willie McGee, Dave Parker and Pedro Guerrero in the MVP vote. McGee was good, but in my opinion it was one of those media-driven MVPs in which a guy who doesn’t have the best numbers wins because the media pushes his candidacy (think Dustin Pedroia in 2008). Parker and Guerrero had good, but not unbelievably incredible power numbers.

But Gooden’s numbers were unbelievably incredible and he should have won the award easily. The Mets were even a contending team — they finished second with 98 wins, three games behind McGee’s Cardinals, so that argument could not be used.

Pitchers should only win an MVP if they have extraordinary seasons — Verlander had that this year, and Gooden had an unrewarded one in 1985.


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Video: Rusty Staub Mets Highlights

Rusty Staub is my all-time favorite Met, so imagine my surprise and excitement to learn that Rusty has his own YouTube channel. He has posted a handful of videos, but this is my favorite — highlights of his playing days with the Mets. It includes his cringe-inducing slam into the right field wall late in the 1973 season that separated his shoulder and hampered him throughout the post season. Still though, he was able to hit four home runs and bat .341, including .423 in the World Series. Enjoy:


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MLB To Add Wild Card Team, 1-Game Playoff

After talking about it for years, Major League Baseball announced Thursday that it will add one Wild Card team to each league, and the two teams will square off in a one-game playoff to determine which one advances to the Divisional Series.

“It’s an extra playoff game,” Commissioner Bud Selig said. “The one criticism we’ve had is that we didn’t put enough on winning the division. Now we have. Now we have in a big way.”

The new system could be in place next season, but definitely in 2013.

I have mixed feelings about this. On one hand, if there had been two Wild Card teams in 2007 and 2008, the Mets would have been one of them, making the collapses a little bit easier to take.

On the other hand, it dilutes the playoff pool. Now 10 of the 30 teams will make the playoffs — that’s 33%. This would possibly allow unworthy teams to make the playoffs.

Also, if there had been two Wild Card winners in each league this season, we would not have gotten that incredible final day of the season, although that was likely a once-in-a-lifetime day in which all the stars aligned that will never happen again.

But what it boils down to is that it rewards teams for winning the division. There was a division race a few seasons ago between the Yankees and the Red Sox that came down to the final weekend with the two teams playing each other. It should have been a dramatic showdown for the ages. Only there was no drama because both teams were guaranteed the playoffs. Sure, the division winner got home field advantage, but that’s really not much of a big deal in baseball. Imagine if the loser had to first play a sudden-death game to advance in the playoffs while the other team got to sit back and arrange its rotation. Then we would have seen plenty of drama.

I will, however, feel bad for a Wild Card team with 99 wins which loses its division by one game having to play the second Wild Card which got into the playoffs with 85 wins. It’s kind of not fair to that far superior Wild Card team, but what are you going to do? That team should have won a couple of more games!


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Mets 50th Anniversary: Back to Basics

The Mets have announced their plans for the 50th anniversary of the franchise, and they are going back to basics. In a news conference Wednesday at Citi Field the Mets unveiled the anniversary official logo.

patch

In a subsequent email the team talked about tweaks to the uniforms:

The Mets this coming season will wear new home pinstripe, white and road grey uniforms reflecting the look of the original uniforms from their inaugural season. The black dropshadow will be removed from the Mets script logo, letters and numbers. The pinstripe uniform will be the primary home uniform with the white and black alternate jerseys worn on select dates. The blue cap will be worn with the home pinstripes and white uniforms, and the road grey uniforms. The team will also wear a new blue and orange batting practice jersey.

mets

Which means we are finally seeing the beginning of the end of black as a Mets color (as if it ever were one). They will likely wear the black uniforms every once in a while just to keep merchandise sales going. It will also be nice to see them wearing the blue hats almost every game. They are so much classier-looking than the black hats.

Also Banner Day is coming back! — a fun Mets tradition for decades until it was unceremoniously dumped.

In addition, Mets brass dispelled a rumor that Lindsey Nelson was going to be exhumed to call a few games. Too bad.


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Dribs & Drabs in Mets World

Some news to report out of the world of the New York Mets.

– Jason Pridie signed a minor league deal with the Oakland A’s. The Mets outrighted him to the minors last week and he chose to be a free agent. I was kind of surprised by this. Pridie was more than adequate in center field in 2011 and I figured he would have the chance to make the team as a fourth outfielder. Hell, I would rather have him starting in center than Pagan and use the roughly $3.5 million in savings towards other problem areas on the team.

– Speaking of Pagan, multiple reports say it appears he and Mike Pelfrey will definitely be tendered contracts. $10 million combined for these two stiffs is not a smart way to spend limited money.

– Ken Davidoff of Newsday writes that the Mets are interested in Staten Island native Jason Marquis. Meh. He always had good movement in his fastball, though.

– On the Jose Reyes front, Sports Illustrated‘s Jon Heyman reports the contract the Marlins offered him was six years, $90 million — that’s $15 million per year for you math majors. That seems pretty reasonable. It’s unlikely to end up there, but at least at this figure the Mets are still in the game. Andy Martino of the Daily News, though, claims the Mets say they don’t want to go to six years, so stay tuned.


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Best. News. Ever. Chris Capuano Gone for Good with Mets?

As we live and die with each Jose Reyes rumor (his signing with the Marlins is  a “done deal,” no wait it isn’t, yes it is!) here is one rumor we can revel in — it appears the relationship between the New York Mets and Chris Capuano is over.

Jon Heyman wrote on SI.com:

capuano

The Mets have crossed Chris Capuano off their list as he seeks a two-year deal following a very nice season in New York.

I take umbrage with that “very nice season” part, but it is nice to know that we won’t have to see Capuano losing games in the sixth inning anymore. And what’s with all the praise being heaped on Capuano following a season in which he posted an 11-12 record with a 4.55 ERA? Yes, it was impressive that he was able to stay healthy and throw 186 innings. But many, many of those innings were vomit-inducing. I guess the bar has certainly been lowered for what passes as “very nice” these days.

Heyman did have some bad news in his column, though:

041010mets38nmSome have speculated that the Mets will non-tender Angel Pagan, but it appears they do plan to present him with a contract. They like him and see potential.

I pray that I am wrong, but I fully expect to see Pagan in a Mets uniform in 2012, so I don’t doubt this rumor. However I question what Heyman truly knows because of the second sentence in that item. By most accounts the front office grew increasingly disgusted with Pagan — both his off-the-field attitude and his on-the-field performance. If that is indeed true and the Mets still tender him, then that goes a long way in telling how this franchise is being operated.


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