Predictions For 2026 Season
Like many Mets fans, I was disappointed in many of the moves David Stearns made this offseason. But in a couple of days, the offseason will be over, and it will be time to see if he was right. Here’s a preview of this make or break season.
The big question is whether this team is better than the one that collapsed and failed to make the playoffs in 2025. The best way to do that is look at the additions and subtractions.
We start with Jorge Polanco replacing Pete Alonso. I am a big Alonso fan and consider all of the talk of his decline utter nonsense. So there will be a huge loss of offensive production at first because Polanco is not even close to Alonso as a hitter. I also never thought Alonso’s defense was that bad (except for this throwing). Polanco has played all of one inning at first, so there will definitely be a learning curve for a guy who was apparently never a good fielder wherever he played on the field. So this is a big minus — one that could be disastrous on both sides of the field.
Now to Marcus Semien, who replaces Jeff McNeil at second base. I was not attached to McNeil, so I have no problem with him not being on the team. But he still is a reasonably productive hitter, while Semien has been on the decline for two years now. So this is a downgrade offensively. Semien is a Gold Glover at second, so there is a defensive upgrade here. Overall though, I rate this is a negative for the roster.
Over at third base was the biggest move of the offseason — the signing of Bo Bichette. He takes Brett Baty’s slot (even though Baty is still with the team). Obviously a huge upgrade offensively. However, Bichette has never played third base before, and he was apparently not a defensive whiz when he played short. Baty was turning into a pretty good defensive third baseman. So while this could be a disaster defensively, Bichette’s offense makes this a positive move.
In the outfield, we have the biggest wild card — Luis Robert, Jr., effectively replacing Brandon Nimmo. I was not among the Mets contingent who mourned Nimmo’s departure. Fine player, good guy, terrible contract who is not the on-base machine he was earlier in his career. If Robert can find his 2023 offensive magic, this could end up being the best move of the winter. If not, well, he is a great defensive center fielder, while Nimmo was just getting worse in left field. I call this one a wash.
The starting pitching should be much better with Freddy Peralta and a full season of Nolan McLean. The rest of the cast — which was the main reason for the collapse — is back. But with the new top two starters, the Mets won’t have to rely on guys like Kodai Senga, Sean Manea and David Peterson to carry the load.
The bullpen was really shaken up with the departure of Edwin Diaz. Stearns really blew that one (if ever really wanted Diaz to stay). He had to know that signing Devin Williams and not informing Diaz first would backfire. These guys have huge egos and this was a shot at that. Having said that, this could end up to be a great move if Williams’ one season with the Yankees was an anomaly. He was lights out in Milwaukee then lost it last year. However, if Williams just can’t handle the bright lights of New York and last season is the new norm, then this could implode the season. The rest of the bullpen additions look fine, but who knows with relievers?
So overall, I am pessimistic about this team. But we will finally find out if David Stearns is indeed the smartest guy in the room or just thinks he is. I see the Mets finishing second to the stupid Phillies in the NL East and still expect them to get a Wild Card spot. Elsewhere, I have the Dodgers and Pirates (yeah, why not?!) winning their divisions, and the Cubs and Giants as the other Wild Cards.
In the AL, The Blue Jays, Tigers and Mariners win their divisions, with the stupid Yankees, Orioles and Royals as Wild Cards.
How about a Dodgers-Orioles World Series, with Pete Alonso powering the Orioles to the championship? It could happen, and it’s so boring picking the Dodgers again.