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Signing Lucas Duda Now Would be Mistake

Over the weekend the New York Post reported the Mets were talking to Lucas Duda about a contract extension. That would be a big mistake.

lucas duda
Mets and Lucas Duda talking long-term commitment.

My many, many readers know I am no fan of Duda. He did break out with 30 home runs last season. But one good season does not mean you should commit to a player for several years and many, many millions of dollars.

Lucas Duda cannot be a free agent until after the 2017 season. That gives the Mets three years of control, three years to see if his 2014 season was a fluke or not (it should be noted that Ike Davis once hit 32 home runs).

I’m not saying the Mets should necessarily wait until he becomes a free agent to lock him up. If he has another big year this season, then yes, open the vault. It would likely cost them more than if they signed him now; two good years will command more money than one good year. But if he flops again, the Mets can just cut him loose or go year-to-year without making a long-term commitment.

With so much time left under the Mets control, it makes no sense to rush to extend him. Unless the Mets truly think Lucas Duda has figured things out and is the next great thing. I think such sentiment is premature. Do it again, Lucas, and then we’ll talk big bucks.

3 thoughts on “Signing Lucas Duda Now Would be Mistake

  • JoeyVito

    We are still comparing Davis and Duda. You should know better. Polar opposites.

  • Mark Berman

    I was not really comparing Duda and Davis. I was just pointing out that hitting 30 or more home runs once does not guarantee it will happen again. Davis just happened to be a good and recent example.

  • I would totally agree with you if this was a big contract…but 4 years at 31 million isn’t a big contract…I know it’s “big” for the Mets but I think the reward far outweighs the risk…if he continues on and is a 30 home run guy going forward this will be a huge discount for the Mets…especially the last year of arbitration and the first year of free agency…and if he flops it still is a small enough amount of money to stomach…and he’ll be easier to trade with the small contract using the selling point of maybe he needs a change of scenery…look at it this way…if he hits 30 again his arbitration will be higher then what Murph got at 8 million which would be right around where his contract would be at or even a little less and going into free agency he’d be well over a 10 million a year player…so I think this really works in the Mets favor…I know there’s the Ike comparisons but duda has a much better swing then Ike does and duda has stupid power so he’ll accidently hit home runs cause he’s so strong…and again if he flops I’m sure a team like the Yankees with their short porch would be more then willing to take a chance on him because his salary would be so low…and 4 years is perfect…it gets him through his prime and it allows the Mets to take their time developing Dominic Smith who is the heir apparant to whoever the Mets have at 1st base…so like I said with the contract being so low I think the reward totally outweighs the risk here…even if he hits only .250 with 20 home runs a year it’d still be worth it

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