Analyzing 2010 Hall of Fame Ballot
On November 27th, the Hall of Fame released the 2010 ballot for enshrinement into its hallowed halls. It’s an intriguing bunch, with no sure-fire, no-doubt-about-it, first ballot players. And sometimes that’s more fun. You can’t argue about the merits of a Hank Aaron or a Willie Mays, but you can get some good discussions going about the first real full-time DH on the ballot, and a familiar name to Mets fans who spit in the face of an umpire.
Roberto Alomar is the face spitter, of course. Ask anyone who only saw him play for the Mets, and they’ll tell you ”no way that stiff belongs in the Hall.” But he has a very strong case. He was the dominant second basemen throughout the 1990s in the American League. He was a 12 time All-Star, won 10 Gold Gloves, collected 2724 hits, and batted .300 for his career.
Barry Larkin’s case is pretty much the same as Alomar’s. The dominant shortstop in the NL in the 1990s, he also made 12 All-Star teams. He won 3 Gold Gloves, plus an MVP award. Larkin hit .295 with 2340 hits.
Edgar Martinez is the first career designated hitter who has a legitimate shot at the Hall. He could just flat out hit. A lifetime .312 hitter, Martinez (left) hit 309 home runs and had 1261 RBIs, including 6 seasons with 100+. He led the league in hiting twice, and hit .300 or more 10 times.
Fred McGriff is the last of the first-timers who enters the conversation (sorry to ex-Mets Kevin Appier, David Segui, Robin Ventura and Todd Zeile). McGriff gets consideration based on one statistic alone — his 493 home runs. He also hit .284 and had nearly 2500 hits, but it’s the home runs that will get him in — or the 7 that he didn’t get that will keep him out of Cooperstown.
Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven and Mark McGwire are the key holdovers from previous ballots. I’m not even going to get into McGwire here — a column on steroid users and the Hall of Fame is upcoming. Dawson and Blyleven have come close in recent years — failing last year by 44 and 67 votes respectively.
My predictions: Alomar (left, the only time he looked happy in the blue and orange — and black) and Larkin are very worthy candidates, and both will eventually be enshrined, but not this time. They just don’t feel like first ballot Hall of Famers to me. The “feel” test is something I’ve always thought about when it comes to whether players deserve to be in the Hall (although I seriously considered discarding the theory when I heard Steve Phillips espouse it a couple of years ago). While they were the dominating players at their positions, their offensive statistics fall well below most other members of the Hall. That’s not enough to keep middle infielders out, but it does usually keep them off the first ballot (think Ryne Sandberg and Luis Aparicio).
Martinez is a very interesting case. I don’t think he should be kept out because he was strictly a DH. He shouldn’t be penalized for playing by the rules of his league. Having said that, I don’t think his numbers are good enough compared to other sluggers. He barely reached the 300 home run plateau, and his 2247 hits is pretty pedestrian. Martinez was just a very, very good hitter, but not Hall of Fame caliber.
McGriff is never getting in. And he may not have gotten in even if he had hit those final 7 home runs. He was never a particularly dominant player — he made just 5 All-Star teams in 19 years. He just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer to me. He was very good — he hit 30+ home runs 10 times, and had 100+ RBIs 8 times. McGriff had several big years before the steroid era began, but in these days of inflated home run totals, 500 (let alone 493) doesn’t mean what it used to mean.
Because of the relatively weak freshman class, I think this is the year Dawson and Blyleven finally get in. I am stunned it has taken Dawson (left) this long — this is his ninth year on the ballot. When I watched him play, I always thought, “there’s a Hall of Famer.” He was one of the most feared sluggers in the 1980s, winning the 1987 MVP with the last place Cubs. He finished with 438 home runs, 1591 RBIs, a .279 batting average and 2774 hits. The main strike against Dawson is a low .323 on base percentage (he hardly took a walk). Also, when you really look at his career, he did not have many huge years. He only hit 30+ homers 3 times, and had 100+ RBIs 4 times — not even McGriffian. But still, he was steady and consistent, and deserves to be in the Hall.
Blyleven (left) also deserves to be in, in my opinion. Younger readers never saw him play, but anyone who did still marvels at his curveball. It simply was one of the best, ever. Blyleven had a 3.31 ERA, struck out 3701 batters (5th all time), and won 287 games. The problem is he also lost 250 games. He only won 20 games once, and was named to just 2 All-Star teams in 22 years. Some of this is because he pitched on some really horrible teams. But should voters punish him for that? Also, he’s been openly campaigning for induction, which turns off some voters. If he doesn’t get in this time around, Blyleven would only have two more years of eligibility before he’s turned over to the Veterans Committee.
Date: November 27, 2009









When I was a young fledgling newswriter, an experienced anchorman told me never to use the word “rumors.” “We deal in facts, not rumors,” he said. And he was right. It’s advice I’ve followed ever since. But when it comes to possible trade and free agent signings, rumor is the only word to use. Because unless a team general manager tells a reporter a trade is about to happen, everything else is just pure speculation. And speculation leads to rumor, which is all sportswriters write about this time of year.
Hudson (left) and Figgins are very similar players. They are both the same age (31), play second, and get on base. A big difference is that Hudson has some pop in his bat. He’ll hit you a double or a homer every now and then. Figgins won’t. And Hudson is a four-time Gold Glove winner at second. Figgins is not. Again, assuming the Mets get rid of Castillo, I would choose Hudson over Figgins. He reportedly will come cheaper, too.
I’m putting these two together because the Mets are either going to pursue both of them, or neither of them. Minaya is doing his due diligence in talking to their agents, but media reports conflict on whether the Mets are serious about spending big for a left fielder. At this point, there’s no way to tell. I would prefer Holliday (left) — he’s younger (29 to Bay’s 31), is a better fielder, has more power, and hits for a higher average (.318 career to Bay’s .280). Plus, while Holliday averages 115 strikeouts per season, Bay averages 157.
This is a longshot at best. I keep reading that the Tigers are in “firesale mode.” They are looking to unload players, and since “no one can afford the contract of Miguel Cabrera…” he’s likely to stay put. If he’s made available, The Mets could, and should afford the contract of the first baseman. He’s got six years left on the 8 year, $152.3 contract he signed before the 2008 season. That’s a lot of money. But Cabrera (left) is a hitting machine, perhaps the best hitter in the game not named Pujols, averaging 33 homers, 117 RBIs and batting .311 over his first seven seasons. And he’s only 26-years-old. If he’s available, and that’s a big if, the Mets should get him, at almost any cost.
Before I joined the ranks of bloggers a couple of months ago, I had a very low opinion of such so called “writers.” The rare sports blogs I read were filled with grammatical and spelling errors. The content was lame at best, libelous at worst, consisting mostly of trashing players and offering ridiculous opinions. I admit I do some of that, just without the errors and the libel.
For example, a recent headline in the New York Post
So one guy writes that the Mets won’t sign any of the big players, while another says they could sign one. Whom to believe? Probably both, probably neither. Because the fact of the matter is, when it comes to writing about trades or free agent signings, no one knows what they’re talking about. Whether it’s bloggers or “real” sportswriters, it’s all speculation. It’s just bothersome that sportswriters’ speculation is treated as news, while speculation from us bloggers gets no respect. Don’t get me wrong, we probably don’t deserve much respect. But neither do they.
As with most things, Homer Simpson (left, with the Capital City Goofball) is right — it is indeed fun to criticize. Unfortunately, the Mets have given us plenty of material over the past few years. But now is the time to put all of the negativity away. This could be a pivotal off-season for the Mets, and whether we like it or not, Omar Minaya will be the man making the decisions. We’ve already looked back on all of the horrible, horrible moves Minaya has made over the years. And yes, it was fun. But it’s time for us to support Minaya, because if he does well, the Mets do well, and we’ll all be happy. So with that and a positive attitude in mind, let’s take a look back on all of the good moves Minaya has made in his time in Flushing, and hope he can repeat them this offseason:
Without Pedro, Beltran probably wouldn’t have come here. But after that monster post-season, the Mets gave Beltran (left, thanking the Lord for his $119 million) the moster contract. His first season was absolutely horrible, but ever since Julio Franco pushed him out of the dugout to take a curtain call early in the 2006 season, he’s been a key cog in the Mets lineup. Minaya overpaid for Beltran as well — Beltran’s agent offered him to the Yankees for a discount before taking the Mets offer. But the Mets were so bad, that was the only way to attract top-notch talent.
The Mets needed a closer after the reign of terror of Braden Looper mercifully ended, so Minaya went out and signed one of the best closers in the game. Wagner (left) missed all but two games of the final season following Tommy John surgery, but for 3 years before that he was lights-out.
This trade was famously more about getting rid of Anna Benson and her cleavage-baring Christmas outfit (left) than it was about ditching Kris. I never understood it, but whatever. Anyway, Jorge Julio was the main man in the deal, but Minaya had apparently done his homework on the “throw in,” John Maine. Up until the injuries, Maine was developing into a dependable starter. As far as Julio, he was a nightmare, but more about him in a moment.
Definitely Minaya’s best deal, and perhaps the greatest deal in Mets history. All Minaya did was get the best pitcher in the game (left) without giving up any of his top prospects. People like to minimize Minaya’s credit for this deal because both the Yankees and Red Sox actually offered better packages. But the Twins didn’t pull the trigger fast enough on those deals, so Santana fell into Minaya’s lap. You can’t blame Minaya for that. He kept at it until Santana was in a Mets uniform.
So there you have it. Minaya may not be the nightmare general manager he’s made out to be. One thing is a bit disconcerting, however. When you check the dates of the above deals, most of them are in the first couple of years of Minaya’s run. Just as a player peaks and starts going downhill, perhaps the same can be said for a GM. Let’s hope not. Let’s hope Minaya can make some deals, so perhaps the Mets can resemble a playoff team again. Hell, if Mr. Burns can assemble an all-star team (left), Minaya certainly can.
Now that we’re done rooting against both the Yankees and the Phillies, and the Yanks have held their stupid parade up the stupid Canyon of Heroes, we can officially begin looking ahead to 2010. Some will say that began at around the All-Star game last season, but we are optimists here. So let’s take a look at what the Mets need to do to get back to the post-season in 2010, or at least not be an embarassment again.
Something must be done about Citi Field. All of the team’s problems in 2009 can’t be blamed on the new spacious ballpark, but it obviously had an effect on the team’s hitters. When your leading home run hitter has 12 homers, something is clearly very, very wrong.
The Mets seem set on Daniel Murphy (left, making his incredible behind-the-back flip) at first. Hell, he was the team leader in homers in 2009 (see above). While I like Murphy and think he will develop into a good hitter despite a somewhat disappointing season, he is not the answer at first base — not for this team, not right now. Since it’s unknown whether David Wright will regain his home run swing, the Mets need power wherever they can get it. And first base is a good place.
The starting pitching is a mess. Right now they have Johan Santana and four question marks. Santana himself is no sure thing because he’s coming off surgery, but he should be okay. John Lackey (left, who certainly won’t get number 41 if he signs with the Mets) would be the perfect addition, but he will command big bucks, and it’s not not clear how much the Mets would want to spend. I think there is a chance the bidding will not get as high as expected, because the Yankees and Red Sox will likely sit this one out, and with those two teams out of the bidding, the price may stay reasonable. Remember Frankie Rodriguez?
Jerry Manuel will start 2010 at the helm of the Mets, but the shadow of Bobby Valentine will be lurking. If the Mets get off to a slow start, the fans will start clamoring for Valentine (left, with his famous fake moustache). It’s actually pretty incredible that a potential manager could fire up a fan base, but Valentine has that allure. He was perhaps the best manager the Mets have ever had — definitely the best since Davey Johnson — and the majority of Mets fans simply love the man. The same reportedly cannot be said about management. Valentine has the kind of abrasive personality that wears thin after a while, and from all accounts , the Wilpons are all worn out. But if 2010 picks up where 2009 ended, and the Mets are desperate to keep their fans happy, rehiring Valentine will do the trick.


















