R.A. Dickey won his 20th game on Thursday, and I will go out on a limb and say that he also clinched the Cy Young Award.
Yes, Gio Gonzalez also won on Thursday, his 21st win. They each have one start left, and I say that regardless of what happens (unless Dickey allows something like 10 runs in one innings and his ERA skyrockets, which is extremely unlikely), Dickey will win it.
Let’s say Dickey loses and ends up 20-7 and Gonzalez wins and finishes 22-8. Dickey will still be either first or second in ERA and strikeouts . He currently leads Clayton Kershaw by 11 strikeouts with 222 and trails Kershaw in ERA 2.68-2.69. He will also be the leader in complete games and shutouts, as well as innings pitched — likely around 30 more innings than Gonzalez. Voters seem to put a lot of importance on innings pitched. I think Dickey’s performance in those other categories will give him the edge over Gonzalez.
Add in the fact that these days voters don’t care much about wins (with which I disagree, but whatever), and everything seems to be pointing towards an R.A. Dickey victory.
Dickey also has the great story that almost everyone wants to see end with him holding a Cy Young Award. I predict that happy ending.